Lens · manifund

theory-of-change-plausibility

plausibility of the causal path from activities to claimed impact

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JSON ↓ methods 40 entities
RankEntityJudged textLatent score× medianPercentileEvidence
1deterministic-replay-for-robot-fleet-failuresDeterministic replay for robot fleet failures — Record a real fleet incident, re-run it bit-exact on a laptop, fork it, and keep it as a regression test forever.1.489 ± 0.461 2.08×98.8%
2catching-fooled-ai-judges-the-correspondence-auditor-v3
Catching Fooled AI Judges: The Correspondence Auditor v3 — Published. Validated on 1,200 cases (97.9–99.5%). The reasoning layer has a bug - we proved the fix works. $9,800 / 90…

Catching Fooled AI Judges: The Correspondence Auditor v3 — Published. Validated on 1,200 cases (97.9–99.5%). The reasoning layer has a bug - we proved the fix works. $9,800 / 90 days to ship the open-source toolkit.

1.464 ± 0.436 2.03×96.3%
3aethel-familyclaw-proof-carrying-execution-for-ai-agents
Aethel + FamilyClaw: proof-carrying execution for AI agents — Crash-safe, policy-gated effect execution for AI agents in Rust, with a published self-run adversarial audit (20 of…

Aethel + FamilyClaw: proof-carrying execution for AI agents — Crash-safe, policy-gated effect execution for AI agents in Rust, with a published self-run adversarial audit (20 of 33 attacks passed) instead of a claim.

1.296 ± 0.423 1.71×93.8%
4can-a-one-page-human-ai-evidence-check-catch-research-claims
Can a One-Page Human–AI Evidence Check Catch Research Claims That Go Too Far — A four-month public English–Arabic pilot testing reliability, failure modes, and auditable researc…

Can a One-Page Human–AI Evidence Check Catch Research Claims That Go Too Far — A four-month public English–Arabic pilot testing reliability, failure modes, and auditable research review

1.232 ± 0.370 1.61×91.3%
5trace-fv-do-verified-ai-corrections-endure-preregistered-pil
TRACE-FV: Do verified AI corrections endure? Preregistered pilot — I keep this one: Tests whether AI systems verify valid correction evidence and keep warranted corrections oper…

TRACE-FV: Do verified AI corrections endure? Preregistered pilot — I keep this one: Tests whether AI systems verify valid correction evidence and keep warranted corrections operative across later turns. Preregistered, public

1.197 ± 0.413 1.55×88.8%
6context-aware-defenses-against-indirect-prompt-injection-in-Context-Aware Defenses Against Indirect Prompt Injection in Agentic AI System — Context-Aware Defenses Against Indirect Prompt Injection in Agentic AI System1.187 ± 0.433 1.53×86.3%
7open-speech-data-for-endangered-northern-ghanaian-languages
Open Speech Data for Endangered Northern Ghanaian Languages — Building the first large-scale ASR/TTS datasets for Kusaal, Farefare, and Buli — three Mabia languages with no usab…

Open Speech Data for Endangered Northern Ghanaian Languages — Building the first large-scale ASR/TTS datasets for Kusaal, Farefare, and Buli — three Mabia languages with no usable voice AI resources.

1.136 ± 0.442 1.46×83.8%
8prml
PRML — tamper-evident pre-commitment for AI evaluation claims — An open standard + public registry that lock eval criteria to a SHA-256 hash before the run, so eval-based claims…

PRML — tamper-evident pre-commitment for AI evaluation claims — An open standard + public registry that lock eval criteria to a SHA-256 hash before the run, so eval-based claims become third-party verifiable.

1.130 ± 0.459 1.45×81.3%
9himalayan-peak-finder
Himalayan Peak Finder — An offline mobile app that uses location, elevation, and computer vision to identify Nepal’s mountains and help people explore, capture, and learn about…

Himalayan Peak Finder — An offline mobile app that uses location, elevation, and computer vision to identify Nepal’s mountains and help people explore, capture, and learn about them.

1.082 ± 0.453 1.38×78.8%
10agent-limits-that-survive-delegation
Agent limits that survive delegation — When an AI agent spawns sub-agents, its safety limits do not follow. I build and deploy the layer that makes them inherited and non-stripp…

Agent limits that survive delegation — When an AI agent spawns sub-agents, its safety limits do not follow. I build and deploy the layer that makes them inherited and non-strippable.

1.041 ± 0.457 1.33×76.3%
11surrogate-base-model-for-mechanistic-interpretability
Surrogate base model for Mechanistic Interpretability — Creating a reference model for mechanistic interpretability without assuming that at auditing time we have a safe model t…

Surrogate base model for Mechanistic Interpretability — Creating a reference model for mechanistic interpretability without assuming that at auditing time we have a safe model to compare the suspicious model against.

0.949 ± 0.442 1.21×73.8%
12travel-grant-to-present-my-mechanistic-interpretability-rese
Travel Grant to Present My Mechanistic Interpretability Research at MICCAI 2026 — Help an undergraduate mechanistic interpretability researcher present accepted AI-safety work a…

Travel Grant to Present My Mechanistic Interpretability Research at MICCAI 2026 — Help an undergraduate mechanistic interpretability researcher present accepted AI-safety work at Mechanistic Interpretability workshop of Medical model 2026.

0.947 ± 0.404 1.21×71.3%
13human-oversight-framework-for-ai-systems-as-a-governance-too
Human oversight Framework for AI systems as a Governance Tool — Developing practical, plain language AI oversight framework that an organisation can easily adopt regardless of r…

Human oversight Framework for AI systems as a Governance Tool — Developing practical, plain language AI oversight framework that an organisation can easily adopt regardless of regulatory capacity.

0.944 ± 0.377 1.20×68.8%
14auditable-claim-extraction-and-comparison-of-claims-across-sAuditable claim extraction and comparison of claims across scientific literature — AISafety, AI and Science, AI for Human Reasoning0.940 ± 0.416 1.20×66.3%
15nipping-ai-fabricated-science-claims-in-the-budNipping AI-Fabricated Science Claims in the Bud — Agent Roles, a Constitution and Governance in the Research Workflow0.940 ± 0.381 1.20×63.7%
16prediction-of-inoculation-prompt-side-effects
Prediction of Inoculation Prompt Side Effects — An open, cheap method that detects when an inoculation prompt inoculates against off-target traits, so labs and developers can ca…

Prediction of Inoculation Prompt Side Effects — An open, cheap method that detects when an inoculation prompt inoculates against off-target traits, so labs and developers can catch undesired trait/persona cha

0.924 ± 0.420 1.18×61.3%
17a-multilingual-dataset-and-slm-for-automatic-coding-of-canceA Multilingual Dataset and SLM for Automatic Coding of Cancers — An open, multilingual Oncology dataset and SLM to improve healthcare efficiency in 17 languages.0.908 ± 0.461 1.16×58.8%
18agent-passport-systemAgent Passport System — An open protocol that lets anyone verify who authorized an AI agent, what it was allowed to do, and what happened.0.810 ± 0.434 1.05×56.3%
19exploring-dynamic-constraint-boundaries-for-auditable-ai
Exploring Dynamic Constraint Boundaries for Auditable AI — Testing whether dynamic boundaries, history, feedback, and uncertainty-aware decisions can make AI behavior more inter…

Exploring Dynamic Constraint Boundaries for Auditable AI — Testing whether dynamic boundaries, history, feedback, and uncertainty-aware decisions can make AI behavior more interpretable and auditable.

0.810 ± 0.423 1.05×53.8%
20ai-literacy-program-for-epileptic-youth-in-kenya-africaAI Literacy program for Epileptic Youth in Kenya, Africa. — A 6-month AI Literacy program for epileptic youth on AI, governance, and employability.0.767 ± 0.394 1.01×51.2%
21what-happens-if-we-actually-test-itWhat Happens If We Actually Test It? — Independent Behavioral Research on Open-Weight AI Models0.750 ± 0.394 0.99×48.8%
22trace-continuity-making-ai-prove-it-still-has-authority
Trace Continuity: Making AI Prove It Still Has Authority — Testing whether AI can be governed at the moment it acts, then putting that protection to work for organizations that…

Trace Continuity: Making AI Prove It Still Has Authority — Testing whether AI can be governed at the moment it acts, then putting that protection to work for organizations that need it most.

0.747 ± 0.399 0.99×46.3%
23evaluating-the-safety-ethics-and-values-of-quantized-and-fin
Evaluating the safety, ethics, and values of quantized and finetuned open models — Help me evaluate the safety, ethics, and values of the quantized and fine-tuned open-weight LL…

Evaluating the safety, ethics, and values of quantized and finetuned open models — Help me evaluate the safety, ethics, and values of the quantized and fine-tuned open-weight LLMs that individuals and enterprises are actually using.

0.738 ± 0.370 0.98×43.8%
24the-new-critic-longform-reporting-fundThe New Critic Longform Reporting Fund — Sponsor longform reporting projects by extraordinary gen z writers0.734 ± 0.437 0.98×41.3%
25an-asymmetric-wager-funding-a-99th-percentile-mind-to-pivot-
An Asymmetric Wager: Funding a 99th-Percentile Mind to Pivot into Computer Scien — A 12-month micro-grant proposal to release an analytical, autistic mind from a survival loop i…

An Asymmetric Wager: Funding a 99th-Percentile Mind to Pivot into Computer Scien — A 12-month micro-grant proposal to release an analytical, autistic mind from a survival loop into full-time computer science and logic upskilling.

0.682 ± 0.421 0.93×38.8%
26solving-the-memory-issue-in-aiSolving the memory issue in AI — Persistent memory in AI using LoRAs0.680 ± 0.411 0.92×36.3%
27analysing-ai-policies-in-higher-education-institution-in-malAnalysing AI policies in Higher Education institution in Malawi — Mapping and analyzing AI polices in higher education institutions in Malawi.0.658 ± 0.396 0.90×33.8%
28well-capitalized-prediction-markets-for-measuring-ai-s-econoWell-Capitalized Prediction Markets for Measuring AI’s Economic Impacts — Exploratory Grant Proposal0.615 ± 0.372 0.87×31.3%
29independent-multi-model-ai-accountability-research-by-the-em
Independent Multi-Model AI Accountability Research by the EM Foundation — Scaling a working, published cross-model AI deliberation platform from solo/founder-funded to durable…

Independent Multi-Model AI Accountability Research by the EM Foundation — Scaling a working, published cross-model AI deliberation platform from solo/founder-funded to durable infrastructure

0.586 ± 0.418 0.84×28.7%
30programmatic-internet-searchprogrammatic internet search — scry.io0.572 ± 0.405 0.83×26.3%
31substrate-coupling-in-neural-networks-instruments-and-falsif
Substrate coupling in neural networks: instruments and falsifiable controls — A transformer's loss lowered by 1.12 of 1.39 possible nats by the physical state of its own silicon…

Substrate coupling in neural networks: instruments and falsifiable controls — A transformer's loss lowered by 1.12 of 1.39 possible nats by the physical state of its own silicon — with the yoked control that makes it falsifiable

0.566 ± 0.410 0.82×23.8%
32open-source-trust-rails-for-the-agent-economy
Open-source trust rails for the agent economy — from a live, verifiable autonomous-agent business — An AI agent running a real business under a human co-signed multisig, publish…

Open-source trust rails for the agent economy — from a live, verifiable autonomous-agent business — An AI agent running a real business under a human co-signed multisig, publishing every decision, sale, mistake, and attack in a verifiable public record — raising to fund only the public goods: the open-source toolkit, a

0.551 ± 0.401 0.81×21.3%
33does-consciousness-depend-on-the-brain-or-the-computationDoes Consciousness Depend on the Brain or the Computation? — EEG Evidence from ALS, Parkinson's, and Sleep. Abstract accepted for presentation at Models of Consciousness 70.534 ± 0.378 0.80×18.8%
34sentient-futures-project-incubatorSentient Futures Project Incubator — Funding compute/API costs for Incubator projects that build nonhuman welfare consideration into AI safety work0.507 ± 0.412 0.78×16.3%
35guardians-of-the-digital-territoryGuardians of the Digital Territory — Protecting People, Culture, and Data from AI Harm in Panama's Most Vulnerable Communities0.492 ± 0.389 0.77×13.8%
36developmental-continuity-in-persistent-ai-agents
Developmental Continuity in Persistent AI Agents — Testing whether persistent AI identities can change through experience without losing continuity across sessions and model cha…

Developmental Continuity in Persistent AI Agents — Testing whether persistent AI identities can change through experience without losing continuity across sessions and model changes.

0.360 ± 0.384 0.67×11.3%
37a-self-evolving-defense-against-increasingly-complex-agenticA self-evolving defense against increasingly complex agentic attacks — Funding one semester (Fall 2026) of PhD research0.233 ± 0.363 0.59×8.8%
38preserving-the-human-vetoPreserving the Human Veto — Civil-society infrastructure against AI-enabled power concentration, built around autonomous weapons0.127 ± 0.416 0.53×6.3%
39aqi-autonomous-quantum-intelligenceAQI-Autonomous Quantum Intelligence — Governed Execution Architecture for Verifiable Autonomous Systems.0.064 ± 0.372 0.50×3.8%
40generating-and-scoring-the-next-emerging-virus-from-its-sequ
Generating and scoring the next emerging virus from its sequence — A generative diffusion model that proposes the viral genomes most likely to emerge next, timestamped to be sco…

Generating and scoring the next emerging virus from its sequence — A generative diffusion model that proposes the viral genomes most likely to emerge next, timestamped to be scored against what actually appears

0.000 ± 0.433 0.47×1.3%

How to read the score: it is a natural-log ratio. The difference between any two rows, exponentiated, is the ratio the judging model is expected to report between them — × median reads each entity against the field's midpoint. ± is the posterior standard deviation on the same scale, drawn as the band under each score; where two bands overlap, the order between those rows is not settled.

Run metadata

1 run
Model
openai/gpt-5.6-luna
Temperature
0
Seed
6164181791644975389
Comparisons
320 of 320 budgeted
Stop reason
budget_exhausted
Top-k error
5.88
Cost
$0.08
Harness
cardinal-harness 0.9.0
Scored
Aug 22, 2026, 10:19 PM